Overall, human development has been very successful the last decades

It is in contrast to widely held perceptions, but the last decades have been globally quite successful in economic and social  terms.  Not the least absolute poverty has fallen very substantially. Inequality has been rising in many countries, but this has not been the case for the globe as a whole. Nor has there been any “race to the bottom” as regards welfare state arrangements. All developed states are “dual economies” with market economy and a solid state sector.

Poorer former “peripheral” countries could successfully integrate themselves into the world markets and make substantial gains, with China as the most prominent, but far from only example. Global warming and ecological damages have been a serious challenge, but the necessary transitions are perfectly doable, and to quite some extent on their way. Population growth has been decreasing and will presumably end completely  in the second half of this century.

In the lecture we review some pessimistic scenarios, (e.g.Malthus, Ricardo, Marx, Meadows) according to which economic growth would sooner or later end in stagnation, if not collaps. None of them became vindicated. It is true, “we cannot go on the same way as we have  done”.  But doing things differently is not new, it has always been at the core of economic growth.